Fire Umbra GuardianTier 1
at 暖角落 GA 店家冠軍賽
decks
2
(7.4% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
11
5-2-4
overall winrate
63.6%
ELO-adjusted winrate
63.2%
avg ELO +5.8 per match
expected value
53.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
54.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1301
· median 1301
· range 1175–1426
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1070
Q1 1201
Q3 1399
1618
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Aetherwing | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 53.2% | +5.1 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 7.4% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.4% | +16.6 |
| Water Fractal | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 7.4% | 3 | 1-1-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 54.0% | +3.0 |
| Wind Byakko | 7.4% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 52.1% | +3.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.7% | +18.7 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.1% | +11.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Slimes | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 3.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.0% | +7.9 |
| Water Umbra Ciel | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 3.7% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.4% | -4.4 |
| Wind Umbra Ranger | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
